Jobs for refugees in transit: the new aid conditionality

A fundamental reshaping of European and UK aid strategy may be happening under our noses, with little public scrutiny. The so-called “jobs compact” for Ethiopia announced at the UN’s September summit on refugees and migrants is a prime example but has provoked little reaction.

This package of UK aid and EU soft loans would be unremarkable in its aim to create 100,000 jobs through construction of a couple of business parks, were it not for the eye-watering price tag of $500 million. The premium reflects the condition that 30% of the jobs must be offered, not to Ethiopians, but to applicants from over 700,000 refugees. Mostly from Somalia, South Sudan and Eritrea, these refugees are currently stuck in Ethiopian camps without work permits.

This job quota is designed to deter families from joining the African exodus heading for European shores. Similar compacts may be in the pipeline for other countries hosting large numbers of refugees, such as Lebanon.

Aid conditionality which reflects political expediency of the donor rather than the recipient has a terrible record. If there are flaws in these refugee compacts, it’s our task as observers to examine them swiftly.

Although the package was introduced in New York by a Vice-President of the European Commission, it has the fingerprints of a UK team, led by George Turkington, DFID’s director in Ethiopia.

These officials must be hugging themselves at the rabbits pulled from a relatively modest $100 million hat of UK aid. Working in unfashionably close cooperation with European institutions, they’ve persuaded the European Investment Bank not only to deploy its loan guarantee tools beyond European borders but also to pursue beneficiary outcomes which might normally be classed as humanitarian rather than development.

The concept of targeting aid to create jobs for refugees in transit, in the hope of snuffing out further travel, was probably inspired by a persuasive article in the Spectator by the development economist, Paul Collier, in August 2015.

Arguing that lavishing funds on refugees already in Europe would achieve little for Syria’s long term recovery, Collier preferred to focus on Syrian refugees in neighbouring Jordan:

Just minutes from the Za’atari camp is an empty industrial zone, fully equipped with infrastructure. This could be a perfect haven of employment, the means by which Europe could incubate Syrian post-conflict recovery

A “Jordan Compact” was duly announced at the London conference on Syria in February 2016. Development banks will finance the construction and operation of industrial business zones in Jordan. The EU will relax certain trade rules. And Jordan will provide work permits for thousands of refugees. This was an “innovative approach pioneered by the UK” according to prime minister, Theresa May, in her announcement of the subsequent Ethiopian initiative.

Although the Jordan programme has experienced difficulties, it’s too early for evaluation. But the jobs-for-refugees genie is out of the bottle. The President of the European Investment Bank described the Ethiopian scheme as “a showcase for Sub-Saharan Africa.” Jean-Claude Juncker has boasted that the new European External Investment Plan, of which the Ethiopia scheme is part, could mobilise up to EUR 44 billion of investments. In the UK, there are signs that migration anxiety is a fixture throughout the government’s foreign aid programme. I’ve seen those tell-tale phrases – “tackle the root causes of migration”, “strengthen the resilience of potential migrants” – pasted into DFID aid tenders, even for quite specialist interventions.

There’s no denying that these refugee job compacts press many buttons on the dashboard of innovative finance for development. Countries hosting the largest numbers of refugees on account of their proximity to the source have been neglected consistently by the aid community. Who could question the creation of jobs where none exist, in the process persuading host governments to respect human rights principles of the 1951 Refugee Convention? And the implied vision of repatriation is the solution preferred in principle by the authoritative UN Refugee Agency.

Two major reservations may stand in the way of these positive sentiments. The first observes that aid policy made on the hoof is rarely sound. The business of international development has learned the painful lesson that new ideas should be piloted before committing to scale. My guess is that pilot programmes are already out there but that research is needed to pull together their track record. The programmes in Jordan and Ethiopia are already on a scale which cannot afford to fail.

My second reservation springs from suspicion of “win-win” development programmes with more than one headline goal, especially if the goals contradict each other. Juncker’s press release boasts that the External Investment Plan will contribute not only to the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development Goals (jobs for locals) but also address the root causes of migration (jobs for refugees). (my phrases in italics)

There’s surely a hefty dose of naivety here. How will local families who are denied jobs by these quota systems react? Will governments shrink from the refugee quota conditions at the first sign of local dissent?

I’d like to hear more from the intended beneficiaries themselves. Do they see their futures working side by side, competent in similar skills in the demanding factory environments to be expected in special economic zones?

We know the painful answers to these questions in a European context. Just last week the UK Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, said: “(we) should ensure people coming here are filling gaps in the labour market, not taking jobs British people could do.”

Why should we impose loan conditions which we ourselves cannot contemplate?

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Ethiopia pioneers in tackling root of European Migrant Crisis

European External Investment Plan: Questions and Answers

Paul Collier article in Spectator

The Jordan Compact from Leiden Law Blog

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Climate change and art: just good friends

Is this a climate change poem which I see before me? I certainly hope so, because art in all its forms has the potential to succeed, where conventional channels of communication have so spectacularly failed to convey the urgency of global warming.

gormley-cathedralIt’s far from certain whether Hence, a short poem by Simon Armitage commissioned for the forthcoming Winchester Poetry Festival, aspires to offer more than a supremely imaginative description of Antony Gormley’s Sound II, the much-admired life-size human figure permanently installed in the crypt of Winchester Cathedral.

For my attennae, wired to any hint of environmental subtext, the poem presses a second tier of buttons marked climate change. As the subject narrates the reasoning for his choice of name, Hence is infused with the language of inundation, warning that “the next big surge” will require “lifeboats” for the bones of Anglo-Saxon kings resting close by. There is admonition for “my people” who “drew cloudbursts into the streets”. This finger-wagging culminates in the enigmatic baptism of Hence, a mocking reminder that human actions have environmental consequences.

I may be reading too much into the text but I’m buoyed by a 2012 New Statesman interview in which Armitage explains:

It’s not my style to meet political subjects head-on but it doesn’t mean that I’m any less enraged or inflamed. I would argue you can write a poem on the Middle East, climate change, any current political topic and make it of that subject with just the inclusion of one or two words.

Let’s hope that Armitage will be persuaded to reveal whether Hence contains the crucial “one or two words” during his contributions to the Winchester Festival next month.

The irony of this particular poem is that its subject, Gormley’s cast, has itself acquired a dynamic and ambiguous relationship with climate change. Each winter, the crypt of Winchester Cathedral floods, the level depending on the severity of rainfall. The photogenic drama of waters rising around the profile of Sound II requires little imagination to transform the image into a tidemark of global warming, threatening the foundations of English heritage.

ucl-climate-gormley-reportAt the height of the UK floods in February 2014, Gormley’s work illustrated front page media stories, waters lapping around its thighs. Later in the same year, the UCL Policy Commission on Communicating Climate Science published its report “Time for Change”. The image chosen for the front cover was the enigmatic figure in the Winchester crypt – on a dry day. On the inside cover, our hero is standing in a lake, pensive as ever.

In the nature of such publications, these choices of illustration were not explained. We were left to infer that, as journalists and scientists fail to communicate the threat of climate change, art must be deployed in the cause.

It’s very possible that this lonely figure gazing into its cupped hands in the 11th century crypt in Winchester will become a symbol of our generation’s inadequate response to climate change, in the UK and beyond.

The twist in this story is that the Sound works were created 30 years ago, surely predating Antony Gormley’s anxiety about global warming. Today, his concerns are unequivocal; when one of the installations on the Dorset coastline was destroyed by a storm in 2015, Gormley’s relaxed reaction seemed to welcome the disaster as supporting evidence.

Nonetheless, I would be very surprised if Gormley had absorbed this broader agenda as early as 1986. How many of us were alive to the threat of global warming at that date? The work has acquired an interpretation that the artist could not have imagined.

This serendipity may conceal a pertinent warning. Tempted as campaigners are to encourage artists to be more explicit in addressing environmental calamity, art and its consumption rarely behaves to order. As Gormley himself has written:

Being preached at is the worst thing that can happen in art..…..It’s very important that the image is not a didactic one. Hopefully it gives you an opportunity to put yourself in the place offered by this silhouette and to think about your connection to and dependence on the context in which we find ourselves… the most important being the elemental world that we have managed for the first time ever, for any species, to have destabilised.

Art offers no silver bullet for environmentalists. They must plug away with their tweets and supporter databases. And take comfort in knowing that art will in its own way reflect and illuminate the deepest concerns of our times.

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To read Hence by Simon Armitage, download the Winchester Poetry Festival Programme and refer to the back cover.

New Statesman Interview with Simon Armitage

Antony Gormley discusses climate change artwork, in the Guardian

Third World Network website: treasure or trash?

Every weekend I suffer a spasm of fear as my routine trawl of development news reaches the visit to twn.my. Will I be confronted by one of those breathless announcements that a new design of the site is to be released, nowadays as common as the disappointment that follows?

My fears are amply justified and have been agonisingly prolonged: twn.my is the inconspicuous address of the international NGO sector’s most archaic website. The distance by which the Third World Network site deserves this accolade is considerable. If there was an online equivalent of world heritage sites, twn.my would be on the UNESCO leaderboard.

Preserve this site in digital aspic

Preserve this site in digital aspic

Even veterans of online publishing may have difficulty in dating the technology of twn.my. The crude box headlines at the top of the front page remind me of the websites that my own organisation (OneWorld) was building for major development NGOs in the late 1990s. Images appear on the page reluctantly, probably involving Herculean editorial effort, and the banner section headings evoke the output of a John Bull printing set. The search box disappears from the masthead in the archive pages, just where it’s most needed.

So why should I lament the inevitable demise of this digital dinosaur, given my unwavering admiration for TWN? For me, its survival defies the tyranny of communications experts who decree that your website must be redesigned every couple of years, if your organisation is to avoid an identity crisis and worse.

Unless I’m much mistaken, Third World Network continues to do what it has always done extremely well. It retains the trust of UN and WTO secretariats necessary to gain the highest available NGO observer status, through which we receive detailed reports of negotiations. Its policy research tackles the hard yards that others fear, currently grappling with the complex interaction of global justice with genomics and synthetic biology. Above all, TWN remains fiercely loyal to its origins as a voice for developing countries, speaking out against the inadequacy of the Paris climate agreement at the endgame of the negotiations, when most NGOs were ready to settle.

These qualities survive, in spite of evident aversion to branding or marketing. The organisation’s name alone is testimony; any self-respecting corporatist NGO would have long since deemed “Third World” to be politically incorrect and adopted the acronym as a standalone title. Yet, for all its retro public image, TWN has fielded consistently inspiring advocates for global justice, many of whom I would love to have met: Martin Khor, Chee Yoke Ling, Lim Li Lin and many more. Shame about the Penang address!

A professional mobile-friendly website and active social media accounts are important branding tools. But they are insufficient to compensate for shortcomings in the traditional areas of business competence. If Third World Network is comfortable with what it does and is recognised as such, it may be justified in steering resources away from conventional areas towards subdomain sites such as its bookshop and Mandarin language site – these appear to use smarter content management software.

Nonetheless, I’ve little doubt that younger members of the organisation are in a constant state of agitation over the pre-millennial state of external communications, attributing whatever currently ails the organisation accordingly. There are signs of change; during last month’s climate negotiations in Bonn I spotted a Drupal beta version of TWN reports and, more remarkable still, active accounts on Facebook and Twitter. None of these yet show signs of taking root, so I’m confident that my weekly adrenalin rush on clicking through to twn.my is safe for now.

Peak weather overcooks climate campaigns

The El Nino phenomenon has stretched the envelope of weather extremes, delivering an unforeseen flow of headline drama. These are halcyon days for climate campaigns, or would be, if only the script were followed.

It’s no secret that the bedrock strategy of climate activism is to latch on to any story of extreme weather, amplifying the implied causation of global warming. This approach is inspired by an accepted theory of change – that a prolonged drip-feed of contextual campaign messaging will eventually sway public opinion and government policy.

The movement’s most shrewd and successful campaigner, Bill McKibben, leads by example. His twitter stream is punctuated by sardonic commentary on the latest flood, drought and thermometer reading. Last week was typical:

This campaign tactic has been turbocharged over recent months by a series of extreme events and record-breaking data. Last week we learned that February’s global temperature was the highest on record, by a margin of scary magnitude. A week earlier it was the storm in Fiji, its intensity unprecedented.

Yet problems may be piling up behind this apparent fulfilment of disaster foretold. It’s surely now or never for the strategy to yield results. And can the drip-feed be sustained in the aftermath of such devastating records – or will climate activists hooked on the hottest, wettest, driest adjectives become as impotent as long-jumpers who followed Bob Beamon? We’ve already seen in recent weeks how the over-egged culture of climate communications has had nothing left in its language toolbox to convey the alarm we should be feeling about data sets which are off the scale.

The question about results is the more pertinent. The current circus of the US presidential election is an indictment of climate activism. Of the three leading candidates for the Republican nomination, not one has passed the potty training stage of climate science.

We all wanted to believe that Hurricane Sandy in 2012 would put an end to this embarrassment. But New York picked itself up, raised tens of billions of dollars to repair the damage and construct new defences, and then carried on. I fear this will be the future pattern – that rich countries will tackle the climate threat with dollars, not votes.

Those of us who have been uneasy about weather-based advocacy will not be sorry if it stumbles. Climate change is an accelerator and booster of extreme events, not their cause. This inconvenient truth plays back into the hands of those who, like Republican politicians, hide behind the non-linear complexities of climate science.

The campaign teams at the big environmental groups like 350.org and Greenpeace are certainly smart enough to know all this. They will be looking beyond this peak weather year and I hope they make radical changes in their core strategy.

The lesson of history of environmental activism suggests that it’s the health impact of pollution that finally tips the balance of public opinion. And for corporations, the threat of litigation is most feared. There’s plenty of scope for these targets, especially in North America.

I wondered last week if Bill McKibben is already making a move towards the personal health and safety front. You have to hand it to the guy, he does go straight for the jugular:

Here in the UK, our island status should protect us from invasive reptilian species. But insects are a different matter. The real prospect of a disease-carrying mosquito or two buzzing around the bedroom darkness of suburban London taps deeper fears than the wind and rain.

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February Smashes Global Temperature RecordsIndependent

Plague of mosquitos carrying deadly diseases is headed for BritainTelegraph

Salutary Clips from Copenhagen COP15

As world leaders descend on Paris today for the climate showdown, I couldn’t resist digging out the corresponding moments of the doomed Copenhagen COP15 in 2009, filmed by indefatigable colleagues at OneWorld.

First, the grand entrance of Angela Merkel. Although the OneWorld crew* extracted only a single word from the doughty Chancellor, this was almost certainly more than she offered to anyone else, as you’ll see.

In opting for economy of expression, Frau Merkel momentarily forgot that it is better to travel hopefully to climate negotiations than to arrive. Asked whether she was optimistic about the outcome of the talks, her response was an emphatic “always”.

Although the soundbite is momentary, this clip covers the full minute preceding the exchange so that you can enjoy the desperate choreography of interviewer and camera operator as they scramble to penetrate the media scrum.

Fast forward a couple of days to the end of the Copenhagen COP – the very bitter end – a solitary UK minister exiting the desolate conference centre, the mood transformed utterly, the media vanished into the night.

Again I’m showing the whole clip as a bravura ensemble – the minister for sustaining a thoughtful discussion about the “pain and effort…of this odd process” when others would have resorted to the single phrase, the interviewer for finding each new question when a moment’s hesitation would have ended proceedings and the camera for its nerveless tracking – all at unbroken walking pace at 4.30 in the morning after two weeks of relentless live presentations.

Back to the present in Paris, optimism about the climate negotiations is once again the refrain, but you sense that the trauma of Copenhagen has not quite been exorcised. Now a more influential figure, often called the “climate Chancellor” in her own country, Angela Merkel wisely conveys determination rather than optimism. Both she and Barack Obama are searching for political legacy; Paris this week could be the time and place.

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*the interviewer in both clips is Adam Groves. I haven’t checked whether he also held the camera; more likely this was Jamie Walker. Sadly, OneWorld will not be covering COP21 but you can follow the climate media and advocacy work of our founders, Peter Armstrong and Anuradha Vittachi, on Twitter @OneClimate

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