World Population Projections

updated October 2016

Each day the world population increases by over 225,000, demanding the equivalent of a new city of 1.5 million inhabitants every week. The total passed seven billion in October 2011 and will almost certainly reach eight billion in 2024. The UN’s median projection for 2050 is 9.7 billion.

More than half of the world’s projected population increase over the period 2015-2050 will be seen in African countries, led by Nigeria. Outside Africa, the biggest contributors will be India and Pakistan. India’s population of 1.31 billion is expected to overtake China in 2022, rising to 1.7 billion in 2050. Together these two countries may then account for almost a third of humanity.

Accurate population data is a vital ingredient of social and economic policy, locally, nationally and globally. Governments cannot deliver efficient services or plan long term infrastructure development without knowledge of the national demographic profile – the size of the population, where people live, how old they are, and the net effect of births, deaths and migration.

Compiling this essential information is far from straightforward. The conduct of a census requires professional management, a very large number of enumerators, application of new technologies and skilled interpretation of the results. Nigeria is one example of a country which has had consistent difficulty in delivering reliable census results, doubly unfortunate in that it is Africa’s most populous nation.

Led by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), international agencies often provide generous financial and logistical support for census production in developing countries.

The UN strives to ensure that data has value in the global as well as national domain. Its 2020 World Population and Housing Census Programme has engaged the cooperation of almost every country to complete at least one census between 2015 and 2024, adhering to minimum standards.

Every two years, the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs publishes its World Population Prospects, essentially a “revision” of previous projections. Based on the latest national census results and other surveys, this is the primary source of global population data.

The 2015 Revision concedes that the two key variables in world population projections, life expectancy and fertility, are fraught with uncertainty over long projection periods. For example, the significant impact of HIV and AIDS in Southern Africa could not have been anticipated by demographers.

Even a modest error of 0.5 in the assumed total fertility rate (TFR – the average number of children that a woman has in her lifetime) would be sufficient to generate a range of uncertainty of over 2 billion for the 2050 population projection. This sensitivity undermines the accuracy of projections beyond 2050 and is an important influence on strategies to stabilise the world population.

It also explains the wide divergence of opinion in dating “peak population”, the point at which world population begins to fall. The official UN median projection sees the figure rising throughout the 21st century to reach 11.2 billion in 2100. This estimate implies only a 23% chance that world population could stabilise and fall before that date. By contrast, many independent researchers believe that the figure will start to fall decades earlier, without ever reaching 10 billion.

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World Population Teeters on the Edge of 7 Billion – Now What?
PBS News Hour takes a look at the milestone reached in October 2011.


Census production in five countries facing difficult environments
Shortened version of a documentary produced by the UN Population Fund

more Population briefings
Introduction
Demographic Transition
Demographic Dividend
Population and Development
Opposition to Family Planning
Overpopulation or Overconsumption?
Source material and useful links

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