Climate Change and Water Scarcity

With projections of supply and demand for freshwater veering off in opposite directions, global warming represents the worst possible intervention.

About two-thirds of the world’s freshwater is frozen in glaciers, snow and ice, self-evidently vulnerable. Rising planetary temperatures will accelerate the pump of the water cycle through faster evaporation from land, rivers, lakes and oceans. A warmer and more volatile atmosphere will receive this added moisture, with uncertain consequences.

Peter Gleick in a short interview discusses the impact of climate change on the water cycle
from Environmental Change and Security Program

The natural cycle for frozen freshwater in mountainous regions involves accumulation during winter and release of meltwater during summer. This seasonal availability of irrigation is vital to farming communities across vast areas, most notably those downstream of the Himalayas, embracing several South Asian countries.

Temperature increases across the Himalayan “water towers” currently exceed the average of global warming. Retreating glaciers and reduced snow cover threaten to disrupt crop yields for hundreds of millions of small farmers.

The implications of global warming for rainfall are of equal concern. There is broad agreement that monsoon patterns will change in timing and intensity, that arid and semi-arid regions will become drier, and that extremes of drought and flooding will become more frequent. Rising sea levels will aggravate the problem of groundwater salinity.

Much uncertainty remains, not least in mapping climate predictions on national or regional areas that coincide with the political reach of water management policy. Whilst the effect of climate change on the El Nino and La Nina phenomena is likely to be considerable, the detail remains very difficult to anticipate.

Even where predictions of rainfall trends are confident, there is insufficient understanding of the mechanics of run-off and groundwater recharge to fully grasp the implications. The net impact on crop yields and soil conservation is also uncertain.

Climate change and water scarcity therefore present policymakers with a perfect storm of known and “known unknown” threats. Planning of vital freshwater infrastructure has become fraught with risk, even for the most sophisticated municipal authorities.

Water Storage: an answer to climate change – with Dr Colin Chartres, Director General of the International Water Management Institute.

Reports already suggest that the impact of global warming will significantly increase the global count of those affected by water scarcity, including the lack of safe drinking water. An example is the Nile Delta, where salinization caused by rising sea level threatens the fertility of a densely populated region.

Nature offers little sympathy to hesitation and uncertainty in response to challenges of water scarcity. Recent droughts in Cape Town and Chennai prompted the concept of “Day Zero”, the inauspicious moment when household taps would fail, a disconcerting preview of water scarcity in a warming world.

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more Water Scarcity briefings (updated May 2021)
Water Cycle
Causes of Water Scarcity
Solutions to Water Scarcity
Sustainable Development Goal for Water
Water Wars
Source material and useful links

Recent news and opinion about Water Scarcity

Middle East’s groundwater: Will it soon run out?

16/8/2023: As rivers dry up and rainfall declines, water stored underground is more important than ever. Many Middle Eastern countries already have regulations about water use but there is a lack of enforcement to regulate water abstraction for agriculture.

Source: DW

Water – a weapon of war or a tool for peace?

11/7/2023: The recent Kakhovka dam disaster in Ukraine is a painful reminder of how destruction of water infrastructure can cause enormous suffering in times of war. Researchers who have studied Yemen, Libya, and Syria say that attacks on civilian and environmental infrastructure have become more common in the past decade.

Source: Inter Press Service

Water security lags behind in UN environmental protection

25/3/2023: The UN’s first water conference in nearly 50 years claims to have secured over $300 billion of promises of global action. But there is no legally binding international agreement to protect water resources and no UN special envoy.

Source: Devex

UN warns of’imminent global water crisis

22/3/2023: The UN has released the World Water Development Report 2023, painting a grim picture of rising global water scarcity. It finds that about 10% of the global population lives in countries where water stress is considered "high or critical."

Source: DW

Access to safe drinking water requires increased investment

24/10/2022: The State of the World’s Drinking Water report notes that over 2 billion people have gained access to safe drinking water in the past two decades. However, one-quarter of the world’s population has been left behind and governments must dramatically increase political commitment and quadruple investment in drinking water.

Source: World Health Organization

Countries must step up efforts to protect freshwater sources

25/8/2022: As events marking World Water Week continue in Stockholm, countries are urged to do more to adapt to the cascading impacts of the climate crisis on freshwater ecosystems, with increasingly frequent and intense dry periods interspersed with floods and extreme precipitation.

Source: UN Environment Programme

Ethiopia expands Renaissance Dam production

11/8/2022: Ethiopia has activated the second turbine of the Grand Renaissance Dam, even as Egypt protested that dispute resolutions relating to the dam remain pending. The dam on the Blue Nile should improve access to electricity in Ethiopia which is currently just under 45 percent.

Source: The East African

The Mekong delta’s transboundary water problems

30/4/2022: The fragmentation of the Mekong River due to the construction of large-scale hydropower dams illustrates the inability of downstream states to shape the Mekong Agreement of 1995 into regional aims, rather than centred around national interests. The Mekong River is the lifeblood of countries in the region .

Source: East Asia Forum

Freshwater planetary boundary oversteps the line

27/4/2022: Humanity’s modification of the water cycle has pushed the world further beyond a safe operating space for continued life on Earth, say scientists. Water is the sixth boundary to be transgressed, out of the nine identified by the Planetary Boundaries Framework, first published in 2009.

Source: Mongabay

Worrying insights from assessment of water security in Africa

6/4/2022: Only 29 African countries have made progress in water security over the past three to five years. Twenty-five have made none. The UN’s concept of water security encompasses various criteria and more effort is needed to establish global standards for data and assessment.

Source: The Conversation

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