World Population – Tread Softly

Summary

The current world population of 7.8 billion is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050. Almost the whole of this growth in population will be located in the world’s developing regions.

In many richer countries, including China, there are increasing signs that population numbers may begin to fall, as women choose to have fewer children. Some experts believe that world population projections may be revised accordingly.

Human Population through Time: It took 200,000 years for our human population to reach one billion – and only 200 years to reach 7 billion
From: American Museum of Natural History

For those countries where population continues to grow strongly, the optimum strategy for stabilising numbers is to achieve universal coverage of reproductive health services and to respect the broader agenda of women’s rights, especially in education. These longstanding objectives are now articulated in the Sustainable Development Goals approved by world leaders for the period 2016-2030.

However, these Goals are not associated with any quantitative targets for global population. Policymaking should strive to create freedom of choice for individuals, respecting their ultimate right to exercise that choice.

Furthermore, a rights-based approach to population goals is no substitute for tackling the excessive and unequal consumption of modern lifestyles. Oxfam research finds that the richest one percent of the world’s population are responsible for more than twice as much carbon pollution as the 3.1 billion people who made up the poorest half of humanity.

Fears for the long term security of the three essential needs of humanity – water, food and energy – signal that our world population can be sustained only if rich and poor alike can be persuaded to embed the principles of sustainability in their consumption and its associated pollution.

Overpopulation is a Myth: Q&A with Misconception Filmmaker Jessica Yu
from Reason TV

There is no denying the pressures of scarcity that future population growth will impose. However, deploying it as a smokescreen for our incompetence in the equitable management of finite resources will not improve our chances.

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more Population briefings (updated August 2021)
World Population Projections
Demographic Transition
Demographic Dividend
Population Policies
Opposition to Family Planning
Overpopulation or Overconsumption?
Source material and useful links

Recent news and opinion about World Population

India’s fertility rate faces sharp decline

6/9/2023: India may have edged out China as the world’s most populous country earlier this year, but recent official statistics show that the general fertility rate in India has fallen 20 per cent in 10 years. Lifestyle diseases are on the rise, while shifting economic and social factors are pushing back the age of marriage.

Source: CNA

India’s population question

1/6/2023: India is expected to overtake China to become the world’s most populous country sometime in July. However, India's total fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level of 2.1 and population is not the only determinant of environmental problems; it is their consumption pattern that leads to environmental degradation.

Source: Down to Earth

India has the world’s biggest population but no census

23/4/2023: India hasn’t conducted a proper census since 2011 and there is no sign of preparation for the scheduled update. The government hasn’t figured out the demographic makeup of its massive populace because it’s afraid of what the numbers might say.

Source: CNA

Global population could peak below 9 billion

27/3/2023: A new analysis suggests the global population could peak at a level significantly lower than is assumed by the UN. In a scenario of unprecedented investment in poverty alleviation, particularly investment in education and health, researchers estimate that population could decline to around 6 billion people by the end of the century.

Source: Earth4All

China’s population falls for first time since 1961

17/1/2023: China's population fell last year, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers. The largest drop since the last year of China's Great Famine lends weight to predictions that India will become the world's most populous nation this year.

Source: CNA

Africa’s population boom may boost economy

27/11/2022: African nations, especially sub-Saharan countries, are the main driver of growth of the world's population beyond 8 billion. Africa's potential for economic growth and its relationship with the rest of the world could change drastically.

Source: DW

UN sees bigger concerns than 8 billion population

15/11/2022: As the global population hits 8 billion, the head of the UN Population Fund is careful not to sound alarmist. COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and climate change are sobering reminders that hard-fought gains in development can easily be upended.

Source: Devex

World population hits 8 billion but growth is slowing

11/11/2022: Global population is about to reach 8 billion, a mere 11 years after it reached 7 billion. There is debate as to whether this milestone is a threat to stability or a cause for celebration.

Source: Inter Press Service

What future for a world of 8 billion?

11/7/2022: The future growth of world population will take place mostly in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Each member of the human population, expected to surpass 8 billion in mid-November 2022, is part of a common humanity that aspires to a fulfilling life. Yet many inequalities persist and are deepening, both within and across countries and regions.

Source: Inter Press Service

World population to reach 8 billion in November 2022

11/7/2022: The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having dropped below 1 per cent in 2020, according to latest UN projections. The world’s population could grow to around 9.7 billion in 2050, projected to peak at around 10.4 billion during the 2080s. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected global life expectancy which fell to 71.0 years in 2021.

Source: UN Population Division

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