World Population Projections

On an average day the birth of 360,000 new babies in the world outpaces deaths (in all age groups) by a factor of more than two. As a result the world population increases daily by over 200,000, demanding the equivalent of a new city of almost 1.5 million inhabitants every week. The total passed seven billion in October 2011 and will almost certainly reach eight billion by 2023. The UN’s median projection for 2050 is 9.7 billion.

According to the most recent UN figures, the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double, in contrast to projected falls in Japan and China. India’s population of 1.4 billion is expected to overtake China in 2027; together these two countries may account for almost a third of humanity by 2050.

Could We Control Human OVER Population? With human population growing so rapidly could we control population growth in the future?
From: BBC Earth Lab

Accurate population data is a vital tool of social and economic policy, locally, nationally and globally. Governments cannot deliver efficient services or plan long term infrastructure development without knowledge of the national demographic profile – the size of the population, where people live, how old they are, and the net effect of births, deaths and migration.

Compiling this essential information is far from straightforward. The conduct of a census requires professional management, a very large number of enumerators, application of new technologies and skilled interpretation of the results. Nigeria is one example of a country which has had consistent difficulty in delivering reliable census results, doubly unfortunate in that it is Africa’s most populous nation, with a very high fertility rate.

Led by the UN Population Fund, international agencies often provide generous financial and logistical support for census production in developing countries.

Census production in five countries facing difficult environments – shortened version of a documentary produced by the UN Population Fund

The UN strives to ensure that data has value in the global as well as national domain. Its 2020 World Population and Housing Census Programme has engaged the cooperation of almost every country to complete at least one census between 2015 and 2024, adhering to minimum standards.

Every two years, the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs publishes its World Population Prospects, essentially a “revision” of previous projections. Based on the latest national census results and other surveys, this is the primary source of global population data. Both the overall UN Census Programme and publication of the 2021 Revision may be delayed by the Covid pandemic.

These Revisions concede that the two key variables in world population projections, life expectancy and fertility, are fraught with uncertainty over long projection periods. For example, the significant impact of HIV and AIDS in Southern Africa could not have been anticipated by demographers. The same will be true if Covid-19 proves to have altered trends in fertility and mortality, to a significant extent.

Even a modest error of 0.5 in the assumed total fertility rate (TFR – the average number of children that a woman has in her lifetime) would be sufficient to generate a range of uncertainty of over 2 billion for the 2050 population projection. This sensitivity undermines the accuracy of projections beyond 2050 and is an important influence on strategies to stabilise the world population.

It also explains the wide divergence of opinion in dating “peak population”, the point at which world population begins to fall. The official UN median projection sees the figure rising throughout the 21^st century to reach 10.9 billion in 2100. By contrast, many independent researchers believe that the figure will start to fall decades earlier. A 2020 paper published in The Lancet predicts sustained falls in fertility rates so that world population will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064, falling to 8.8 billion by 2100, over two billion fewer than the UN projection.

Mapping global population and the future of the world – a booming population is only part of the story—in some places populations are in decline
From: The Economist

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more Population briefings (updated August 2021)
Introduction
Demographic Transition
Demographic Dividend
Population Policies
Opposition to Family Planning
Overpopulation or Overconsumption?
Source material and useful links

Recent news and opinion about World Population

India’s fertility rate faces sharp decline

6/9/2023: India may have edged out China as the world’s most populous country earlier this year, but recent official statistics show that the general fertility rate in India has fallen 20 per cent in 10 years. Lifestyle diseases are on the rise, while shifting economic and social factors are pushing back the age of marriage.

Source: CNA

India’s population question

1/6/2023: India is expected to overtake China to become the world’s most populous country sometime in July. However, India's total fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level of 2.1 and population is not the only determinant of environmental problems; it is their consumption pattern that leads to environmental degradation.

Source: Down to Earth

India has the world’s biggest population but no census

23/4/2023: India hasn’t conducted a proper census since 2011 and there is no sign of preparation for the scheduled update. The government hasn’t figured out the demographic makeup of its massive populace because it’s afraid of what the numbers might say.

Source: CNA

Global population could peak below 9 billion

27/3/2023: A new analysis suggests the global population could peak at a level significantly lower than is assumed by the UN. In a scenario of unprecedented investment in poverty alleviation, particularly investment in education and health, researchers estimate that population could decline to around 6 billion people by the end of the century.

Source: Earth4All

China’s population falls for first time since 1961

17/1/2023: China's population fell last year, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers. The largest drop since the last year of China's Great Famine lends weight to predictions that India will become the world's most populous nation this year.

Source: CNA

Africa’s population boom may boost economy

27/11/2022: African nations, especially sub-Saharan countries, are the main driver of growth of the world's population beyond 8 billion. Africa's potential for economic growth and its relationship with the rest of the world could change drastically.

Source: DW

UN sees bigger concerns than 8 billion population

15/11/2022: As the global population hits 8 billion, the head of the UN Population Fund is careful not to sound alarmist. COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and climate change are sobering reminders that hard-fought gains in development can easily be upended.

Source: Devex

World population hits 8 billion but growth is slowing

11/11/2022: Global population is about to reach 8 billion, a mere 11 years after it reached 7 billion. There is debate as to whether this milestone is a threat to stability or a cause for celebration.

Source: Inter Press Service

What future for a world of 8 billion?

11/7/2022: The future growth of world population will take place mostly in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Each member of the human population, expected to surpass 8 billion in mid-November 2022, is part of a common humanity that aspires to a fulfilling life. Yet many inequalities persist and are deepening, both within and across countries and regions.

Source: Inter Press Service

World population to reach 8 billion in November 2022

11/7/2022: The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having dropped below 1 per cent in 2020, according to latest UN projections. The world’s population could grow to around 9.7 billion in 2050, projected to peak at around 10.4 billion during the 2080s. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected global life expectancy which fell to 71.0 years in 2021.

Source: UN Population Division

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