Conflict

27/2/2026: The geopolitics of the South China Sea in 2025 were shaped by confrontation, militarisation and US–China rivalry. While some progress was made towards reaching an ASEAN–China Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, negotiations will remain fraught in 2026.

Source: East Asia Forum

23/2/2026: If civil war in Ethiopia reignites, there are fears it would drag in neighbouring Sudan. Tigray’s elite has become deeply split, with every policy issue framed through the lens of factional allegiance. Demobilisation and other terms of the Pretoria peace deal have not been enforced. None of the probable scenarios offers a clear path to victory for any of the parties.

Source: The New Humanitarian

18/2/2026: President Trump’s Board of Peace has held its first meeting. The new entity was established by a UN Council resolution to implement the plan to end the two-year war between Israel and Hamas. Phase 2 of the peace plan includes the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, disarming Hamas, and installing a transitional Palestinian administration. It is yet to be seen how useful the board will be in carrying out its Security Council-sanctioned responsibilities in Gaza.

Source: PassBlue

17/2/2026: Despite the increased military brinkmanship, continuing talks could help the US and Iran step back from the edge, build trust and perhaps develop better political relations. Unfortunately, as time passes with no deal, both sides harden their negotiating starting points, making a deal less likely.

Source: The Conversation

13/2/2026: A report released by the UN human rights office investigates the RSF assault on the besieged city of El Fasher in North Darfur last October. The report concludes that the atrocities committed amount to war crimes and possible crimes against humanity. Sudan's national army and the Rapid Support Forces militia have been fighting for control of the country for almost three years. 

Source: UN News

12/2/2026: A report by Oxfam finds that conflicts across Africa have dominated UN Security Council resolutions over the last decade, despite no African country having a permanent seat on the Council. Decisions without proper African representation too often fail to deliver peace or address root causes.

Source: Oxfam International

11/2/2026: The US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (collectively known as the Quad) have announced they are close to finalising a detailed initiative aimed at ending Sudan’s civil war, with preliminary approval from the two warring parties. Continued military escalation and the Sudanese army’s refusal to legitimise the RSF undermine prospects for de-escalation.

Source: The Conversation

9/2/2026: Reported plans for the US Department of Defense to purchase cluster munitions from Israel weaken global norms that protect civilians from the widely banned weapons. The US has also recently rolled back restrictions on the use of antipersonnel landmines, another inherently indiscriminate weapon.

Source: Human Rights Watch

8/2/2026: With the end of the New Start treaty, we face a potentially catastrophic nuclear war. Leaders in Washington are pushing ahead with a massive weapons upgrade. In the history of the arms race, citizen pressure and grassroots political action have been effective in prompting weapons limitation and disarmament.

Source: The Guardian

2/2/2026: An authoritative survey of 23 armed conflicts over the last 18 months has concluded that international law seeking to limit the effects of war is at breaking point, with more than 100,000 civilians killed, while torture and rape are committed with near impunity. The laws of armed conflict were developed extensively after the end of the second world war.

Source: The Guardian